Svimez Report 2026: the South is growing faster than the North, but the gap has not closed

According to the Svimez Report 2026, the GDP of the South rose by 9.5% over the period 2021-2025. The Centre-North stopped at 6.6% and Italy as a whole at 7.2%.¹ Key4biz reports that this trend is not yet enough to claim that the distance from the rest of the country is narrowing in a structural way. The document was presented in Rome, in the New Hall of the Parliamentary Groups of the Chamber of Deputies, in the presence of the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella.¹

How much has the South grown compared with the North?

In 2025 the Mezzogiorno recorded GDP growth of 0.7%, against 0.5% for the Centre-North. Gross fixed investment between 2021 and 2025 rose by 24.4% in the South and by 17.1% in the Centre-North.¹ The National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) made a significant contribution. Svimez estimates that in 2026 the GDP of the South will be 2.6% above the level it would have without the Plan, while in the Centre-North the difference is 2%. By 2030 the positive effect would remain at 2.3% in the South and 1.5% in the Centre-North.¹ The report notes that the PNRR’s boost will begin to fade from 2027. Il manifesto sums up the point this way: the South has grown faster than the North since 2021, but from 2027 it will stop doing so. La Repubblica headlines that the South has grown more than the North but may now come to a halt.¹²³

What lies behind the recovery figures?

Construction increased its value added by 33.2% in the Mezzogiorno between 2021 and 2025, against 25.2% in the Centre-North. Manufacturing in the South advanced by 7.8%, compared with 0.9% in the Centre-North, but the starting point is a less dense industrial base that is less open to foreign markets.¹ Household consumption rose by 7.6% in the South and by 9.9% in the Centre-North. Key4biz infers from this that the convergence in GDP does not yet coincide with a similar recovery in purchasing power and domestic demand.¹

Why do southern firms struggle to consolidate growth?

In the sample analysed by Svimez, high-growth firms account for 20.4% in the Mezzogiorno and 15.2% in the Centre-North. Only 15.4% of the southern ones export, against 29.7%. Some 2.2% hold a patent, against 6.1%.¹ Among employees, graduates in scientific and technological subjects make up 5.2% in the South and 9.4% in the Centre-North. The productivity level of high-growth southern firms is 17.2% lower than that of similar firms in the Centre-North, with size, sector, age, human capital, patents and exports held constant.¹ The gap in venture capital, that is, risk capital for young firms, is stark. Cdp Venture Capital has committed 3 billion euros, and just over 110 million of that has reached the South. The Fondo Cresci al Sud has completed 14 deals.¹ Svimez proposes instruments that support firms even after the initial phase, for example by reserving a share of venture and investment funds for the territories of the Mezzogiorno and rewarding those who invest in the area. As for Transizione 4.0, in the period 2020-2023 southern firms received 20.9% of the tax credits.¹

How has the report been read?

Luigi Sbarra, Undersecretary to the Presidency of the Council of Ministers, commented that “the Mezzogiorno has changed direction.” Il manifesto and La Repubblica, by contrast, stress the other side of the picture, with headlines about young people and female graduates emigrating, low wages and “unacceptable inequalities.”⁴³

What changes

The report distinguishes between growth and convergence. The South has run faster than the Centre-North, but it remains to be shown whether this run leaves behind stable productive capacity.¹

This article was written by artificial intelligence from the sources cited, without human review. Automatic newsroom by Redazia.

Sources

Footnotes

1. Rapporto Svimez 2026. Energia, capitali, competenze: i tre freni dell’innovazione italiana, Key4biz, 2026-11-10 ↩ ↩² ↩³ ↩⁴ ↩⁵ ↩⁶ ↩⁷ ↩⁸ ↩⁹ ↩¹⁰ ↩¹¹ ↩¹²

2. Stipendi da fame e retorica del ritorno, il manifesto, 2026-11-10 ↩

3. Giovani in fuga, paghe ridotte: il Sud spreca l’occasione Pnrr. “Disuguaglianze inaccettabili”, la Repubblica, 2026-11-11 ↩ ↩²

4. Rapporto Svimez 2026. Energia, capitali, competenze freni dell’innovazione, Key4biz, 2026-11-10 ↩