Fossil CO2 Emissions Set to Fall 0.4% in 2026: What the Forecast Says

Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and cement are expected to fall by about 0.4% in 2026, to 38.2 billion tonnes. This is the forecast of the Global Carbon Budget report by the Global Carbon Project, published on 10 November while COP31, the UN climate conference, is under way in Antalya, Turkey.¹²³ According to the report, the decline is largely due to a drop in oil emissions and to the energy shock that followed the conflict in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The authors warn that a reduction tied to a geopolitical crisis is not a lasting climate solution.¹³

A forecast, not a final figure

The 2026 figure is a preliminary projection, built on data from the current year. The Global Carbon Project gives a range running from a 1.5% decline to a 0.6% increase, so a slight rise cannot be ruled out.¹ The report is the 21st edition of the annual analysis and is coordinated by the University of Exeter, with more than a hundred researchers involved. The main study is published in Earth System Science Data. A second paper by the same group appeared in Nature Climate Change.⁴⁵³ The historical series are on firmer ground. In the decade 2016-25, fossil emissions grew by an average of 0.9% a year, compared with 1.9% in the previous decade, and 2025 marked a record high.¹⁵

Which sources and which countries

Oil emissions are expected to fall by 1.9%, an effect the authors consider likely to be short-lived. Gas emissions would fall by 0.3%, while coal continues to rise slightly.¹²³ Among the major economies, fossil emissions are forecast to fall in China (-0.9%), the United States (-1.3%) and the European Union (-1.5%). In India they are expected to grow by 4.4%, more than the average annual 3.5% of the last decade. The fall in oil affects all the main regions, with the peak in China (-4.6%).¹³ In China’s case, the report notes that coal rises by 0.3% while renewable generation continues to grow strongly. Beijing accounts for 32% of global fossil emissions.³ International aviation and shipping are also expected to cut emissions by 1%. For aviation, reduced activity in the Middle East is partly responsible.³

Why total emissions still rise

Adding fossil fuels and land-use change together, total CO2 emissions are forecast at 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026, compared with 42.8 in 2025. The increase comes entirely from land use, estimated at 5.1 billion tonnes.¹³ This item is being driven by peat fires and forest degradation in Southeast Asia, linked to drier conditions with the arrival of a strong El Niño. If land-use emissions had stayed at 2025 levels, the total would have fallen slightly, to about 42.6 billion tonnes.¹³ The remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5 °C is 150 billion tonnes of CO2, less than four years of emissions at the current rate.¹⁶³

Renewables and war: two different drivers

In the Nature Climate Change paper, about two thirds of the extra energy the world is demanding is being supplied by solar, wind and electric vehicles. Yet the same study concludes that their spread has not yet reached the scale needed to bring global emissions down for good.¹⁵³ Glen Peters of the Cicero research centre noted that emissions falling in one year do not amount to a peak unless structural change is behind the drop. Clean technologies, he added, are reducing emissions in dozens of countries and slowing their growth in many others, but they do not go far enough to bring about a global peak.³

Why it matters

The 2026 decline would be the first since 2020, the year of the pandemic, and that too was an external shock. A timeline reported by SRF indicates that in the past, declines in fossil emissions have followed exceptional events, such as the oil crises of the 1970s, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the 2007 financial crisis and Covid.²⁵⁷ Corinne Le Quéré, of the University of East Anglia, recalled that after such shocks emissions rose again as economies recovered. A rebound is likely, she said, when tensions over oil ease. The report’s authors also expect a catch-up effect after the conflict ends.⁵⁷

This article was written by artificial intelligence from the sources cited, without human review. Automatic newsroom by Redazia.

Sources

Footnotes

1. Analysis: Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions set to dip in 2026 as Iran conflict hits oil use, Carbon Brief, 2026-11-10 ↩ ↩² ↩³ ↩⁴ ↩⁵ ↩⁶ ↩⁷ ↩⁸ ↩⁹ ↩¹⁰

2. COP31, emissioni in calo nel 2026 grazie a rinnovabili e agli effetti della guerra, agi.it, 2026-11-10 ↩ ↩² ↩³

3. Global Carbon Budget | Fossil CO₂ emissions decrease in 2026, globalcarbonbudget.org ↩ ↩² ↩³ ↩⁴ ↩⁵ ↩⁶ ↩⁷ ↩⁸ ↩⁹ ↩¹⁰ ↩¹¹ ↩¹²

4. Les émissions de carbone fossile baissent en 2026: un effet de la guerre en Iran ou le premier signe d’une évolution salutaire?, Le Temps, 2026-11-10 ↩

5. Fossil fuel emissions fall due to Iran war, renewables: research, Dawn, 2026-11-10 ↩ ↩² ↩³ ↩⁴ ↩⁵

6. Fossil fuel emissions are expected to fall in 2026. Why aren’t climate experts celebrating?, euronews, 2026-11-10 ↩

7. Ist das die Klimawende? – Wegen Irankrieg – Ausstoss fossiler Treibhausgase sinkt, SRF News, 2026-11-10 ↩ ↩²