US GDP up 3.4% in the third quarter, yet Treasuries rally: what we know

Correction, November 3, 2026: the first version of this article, published in Italian, said US GDP had grown “at the fastest pace in more than five years”, as MarketWatch reported. The official Bureau of Economic Analysis figure is a 3.4% annual rate, below the 4.4% of the third quarter of 2025: it is not a five-year high. We corrected the headline, summary and text and removed two paragraphs (on Saudi Aramco’s profits and on AI investment) that were about other news.

US gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 3.4% in the third quarter of 2026, according to the advance estimate of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the Commerce Department’s statistics agency.¹ In October, Treasuries, the US government’s bonds, rallied in a way MarketWatch describes as defying the usual investing playbook.²

How fast did the US economy grow?

The BEA released the estimate on October 29: a 3.4% annual rate from July to September, after 2.2% in the second quarter.¹ That is solid growth, not an exceptional one: in the third quarter of 2025 GDP rose 4.4%, according to the BEA’s revised figures.³ It is a first reading: the second estimate is due on November 25 and may change it.¹

Why did Treasuries rally?

A strong economy usually pushes yields up and bond prices down. In October the opposite happened, which is the point MarketWatch makes.² The sources available do not establish what drove the buying of Treasuries: the cause of the rally is still unclear.²

This article was written by artificial intelligence from the sources cited, without human review. Automatic newsroom by Redazia.

Sources

Footnotes

1. Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2026 (Advance Estimate), Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2026-10-29 ↩ ↩² ↩³

2. The bond-market rally is defying the typical investing playbook. Here’s why., MarketWatch, 2026-11-02 ↩ ↩² ↩³

3. Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Updated Estimate), Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2026-01-22 ↩